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Heky & MM

September 16

再来一个回锅肉

这次是我做的了

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August 03

亲历奥运-8月2日

8/1 20:42 登上T110上海-北京的列车,安检一如以前,未经历传说中的开包检验,开瓶喝水,液体化妆品逐一检验等等严格的考验。
8/2 15:15 北京站(因南京到徐州水灾,列车晚点5小时)。出站一切顺利,原以为出站的安检考验完全不存在,但看到有人被抽检。

出站之后,一片奥运的气氛。天坛附近,50米一岗。
IMG_0068

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途经德云社(车上偷拍)
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CCTV新大楼
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晚上逛世贸天阶,天顶为超大屏幕,据说是模仿拉斯维加斯一景,不过都在播广告
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簋街大餐,一家人畅谈甚欢。不知道烤鱼以后会不会像水煮鱼一样流行。
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July 02

复古

╔═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╤═╗
║不│文│碍│词│效│博│再│要│客│阅│加│至│字│此║
║快│化│阅│语│的│客│粘│发│发│读│适│左│转│工║
║试│,│读│的│防│上│贴│表│言│。│当│的│换│具║
║试│又│。│检│止│去│到│的│之│您│的│方│为│可║
║。│增│即│索│网│。│要│文│前│可│线│式│古│以║
║ │加│弘│过│站│这│发│章│用│以│标│显│典│把║
║ │趣│扬│滤│程│样│表│转│这│在│,│示│的│普║
║ │味│中│,│序│还│的│化│个│论│方│,│竖│通║
║ │性│华│且│对│可│论│,│工│坛│便│并│排│横║
║ │。│古│不│某│以│坛│然│具│、│读│且│由│排║
║ │还│典│妨│些│有│、│后│把│博│者│增│右│文║
╚═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╧═╝

此古书式竖排格式由http://www.cshbl.com/gushu.html在线转换工具生成
July 01

二进制

世界上总共有10种人,一种懂得什么是二进制,一种不懂。
—— Google员工
 
另一篇:
我最讨厌2种人
一种是有种族歧视的人
一种是黑人
一种是不会数数的人

 

June 20

地震的避難

感觉还不错的资料,其中不乏值得参考的建议

 地震手册

June 13

给研究起步者的忠告

看到一篇CMU教授Manuel Blum的文章,原文题目是Advice to a Beginning Graduate Student (附后)

摘录最有感触的几点如下,相信这些忠告不只对做研究的人有用。

态度:无论你做什么,你得喜欢做它,以至于你可以在无人跟进的很长一段时间里,独立思考并研究它。

知识:应该对任何东西有所了解,并对某个东西彻底了解。

给研究起步者的忠告

科学松鼠会 作者:gaoang

最近读到CMU教授Manuel Blum在给研究起步者的忠告一文中写到的内容,有些话语很有感触,摘录出来放在下面。

  1. 阅读:阅读的同时,用笔写下所读的内容,特别是在面对一些晦涩材料的情况下。
  2. 学习:写作和记录有助于提高你的能力和记忆力。
  3. 思考:遇到困难,自己完全有能力给自己找到解决问题的途径。理论束缚人的思想,实践解放人的思想。
  4. 方法:拿小的例子做实验,或者将问题放在一个假定的解决方案之中。
  5. 态度:无论你做什么,你得喜欢做它,以至于你可以在无人跟进的很长一段时间里,独立思考并研究它。
  6. 知识:应该对任何东西有所了解,并对某个东西彻底了解。
  7. 研究:专注于可以狭小到可以彻底理解的题目,然后坚持下去,就会越来越意识到,研究题目实际上已经包罗万象。
  8. 答案:往往我们不会得到预期的答案,答案可能是肯定或否定之外的其他东西。
  9. 困难:我们很难预料问题的答案。有时可能会被问题拖着,走向另外一个无法预料但正确的方向上。
  10. 盲点:所有人眼中都有盲点,但也会帮助塑造我们的智力和思维。
  11. 写作:首先要有东西可说,其次把它说出来,第三说完即止,最后拟一个正确的题目。
  12. 导师:并非所有导师都能阅读并读懂你的论文,但要保证同行可以读懂你的论文。

注:Blum教授是理论计算机学大师,同时也是美国国家科学院(National Academy of Sciences)成员,同时感谢东北大学郝宪文的翻译提供参考。

附Blum原文:

http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~mblum/research/pdf/grad.html

Advice to a Beginning Graduate Student
or
What is Research?
or
The 4 R's of Graduate School:
Reading, Rithmetic, Research, and Writing

29-AUG-01. Updated 28-AUG-02.
Manuel Blum


Outline of the talk:

READING, STUDYING, THINKING,
STARTING OFF on the PhD,
DEEP in the MIDDLE of the PhD,
WRITING it all up.
YOU


READING:
Books are not scrolls.
Scrolls must be read like the Torah from one end to the other.
Books are random access -- a great innovation over scrolls.
Make use of this innovation! Do NOT feel obliged to read a book from beginning to end.
Permit yourself to open a book and start reading from anywhere.
In the case of mathematics or physics or anything especially hard, try to find something anything that you can understand.
Read what you can.
Write in the margins. (You know how useful that can be.)
Next time you come back to that book, you'll be able to read more.
You can gradually learn extraordinarily hard things this way.

Consider writing what you read as you read it.
This is especially true if you're intent on reading something hard.

I remember a professor of Mathematics at MIT,
name of BERTRAM KOSTANT,
who would keep his door open whenever he was in his office, and he would always be at his desk writing.
Writing. Always writing.
Was he writing up his research? Maybe.
Writing up his ideas? Maybe.
I personally think he was reading, and writing what he was reading.
At least for me, writing what I read is one of the most enjoyable and profitable ways to learn hard material.


STUDYING:
You are all computer scientists.
You know what FINITE AUTOMATA can do.
You know what TURING MACHINES can do.
For example, Finite Automata can add but not multiply.
Turing Machines can compute any computable function.
Turing machines are incredibly more powerful than Finite Automata.
Yet the only difference between a FA and a TM is that
the TM, unlike the FA, has paper and pencil.
Think about it.
It tells you something about the power of writing.
Without writing, you are reduced to a finite automaton.
With writing you have the extraordinary power of a Turing machine.

THINKING:
CLAUDE SHANNON once told me that as a kid, he remembered being stuck on a jigsaw puzzle.
His brother, who was passing by, said to him:
"You know: I could tell you something."
That's all his brother said.
Yet that was enough hint to help Claude solve the puzzle.
The great thing about this hint... is that you can always give it to yourself !!!
I advise you, when you're stuck on a hard problem,
to imagine a little birdie or an older version of yourself whispering
"... I could tell you something..."

I once asked UMESH VAZIRANI how he was able,
as an undergraduate at MIT,
to take 6 courses each and every semester.
He said that he knew he didn't have the time to work out his answers the hard way.
He had to find a shortcut.
You see, Umesh understood that problems often have short clever solutions.


There will come a time when you work on a problem long and hard but UNsuccessfully :(
And then you learn that someone else found a solution.
See this as the GREAT opportunity it is to learn something important.
Don't let it pass you by.
Ask yourself: "How SHOULD I have been thinking to solve that problem?"
I have found that doing so is a powerful exercise.
Danny Sleator tells me that BOB FLOYD independently recommended exactly this exercise to his students.
He would lead them into asking themselves:
"How COULD I have led myself to that answer?"
Take the time to think it through.
It's worth it.

There will come a time when you work on a problem long and hard and SUCCESSFULLY :)
And then you learn that someone else already published. :(
Hard as that may be for you to take, you must view this too as a great opportunity.
Don't turn off. Read what got published.

You will be surprised how often the published paper turns out to be different in some significant way. Roughly
50% of the time, it is NOT at all the same as what you did.
25% of the time, it is the same but not as good.
25% of the time it is better.

This means that 50% of the time or more, you can still publish.

And what about the 25% time that what got published is better than your own?
In that case, you have a great opportunity to learn.
Ask yourself: "How SHOULD I have been thinking to solve the problem in this fine way?"

This is how I discovered, as a young engineer, that I should learn something enormously powerful called "Modern Algebra."
It's one reason I switched from Electrical Engineering as an undergraduate major to Mathematics as a Graduate major.
Of course, this was before there existed anything called Computer Science.


Still on THINKING...
The importance of PARADOX and CONTRADICTION.
When you can prove that a statement S is true,
and you can prove that the same statement S is false,
then you KNOW that that you're on to something:
Something is wrong somewhere.
Never underestimate the power of a contradiction.
It is one of our most potent sources of knowledge.

Examples include the Liar Paradox "This statement is false." with its applications to Set Theory and our understanding of language.
There are the seeming paradoxes of countability and uncountability,
In CS, there is the apparent paradox that leads to The Halting Problem.
Physics has lots of paradoxical material:
Quantum Theory. The Einstein-Rosen-Podulsky Paradox.
The relativistically speeding Twins.
The wave and particle nature of matter.

Here's an ASIDE on my current work, also based on paradox:
I am personally interested in the Paradox of consciousness. Compare the following two views:
1. the view that the human is a MECHANISM, an automaton
with substantial but finite internal memory, programmed like
any computer to do whatever it does, and/or
2. the view that the human is a thoughtful observant
creature with a God-like free will; that it is a CONSCIOUS
ENTITY at the controls of a highly complex highly capable
mechanism, choosing what to do from among options served up
by/from its vast unconscious below.

In my view, both these views are correct. How can that be?

In his "Life of Johnson," James Boswell quotes Samuel Johnson
as saying:
"All theory is against the freedom of the will; all experience
is for it."
Johnson was 18 years old when Newton (age 85) was buried.
Johnson knew that F=MA implied that humans are mechanisms.

"All theory is against the freedom of the will; all experience
is for it."

This ends my ASIDE.

Make a list for yourself of good ways to pursue a problem.
My own favorite is to try small examples. By comparison,
DAVID GRIES's favorite is to put himself in the middle
of a (presumed) solution. An example is his coffee can problem:
Given a can of black and white coffee beans, do the following: Pull out two beans: if both are the same color, replace them with a white bean. If the two are different, replace them with a black bean. What color is the last bean?

Or try out the two methods on the Hershey Bar problem
[Give an optimal algorithm to break an mxn Hershey bar into
1x1 pieces. At each step, you can choose a single rectangle
of chocolate and crack it along one of its vertical or
horizontal lines. A single crack counts one step. You are to
make the fewest number of cracks]

Brains are muscles.
They grow strong with exercise.
And even if they're strong, they grow weak without it.
In the months before Kasparov lost to Deep Blue,
his mother came after him.
She was worried that he wasn't spending enough time
exercising himself (on chess).
Her worries proved well-founded.

THE PhD: GETTING STARTED
I remember a great summer job I once had at IVIC
(Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Cientificos).
A top neurophysiologist, name of Svaetichin, gave me a splendid problem... one that I unfortunately could not solve.
The problem was to find a way to focus light on a single cell
of a goldfish retina so that the light would not spill over
onto any of the adjacent cells.
Svaetichin had tried making a pinhole in a sheet of black tin,
and shining his light thru the hole. This worked for moderate size holes, but failed for really small holes, which caused the light to diverge, to form diffraction patterns.

Since Svaetichin couldn't solve the problem, I decided I couldn't. Or perhaps it's that I thought his problem physically unsolvable. In retrospect, I should have taken out books on physics, especially optics, read as much as I could, talked to others and kept on talking to him.
Svaetichin would have helped me if I had shown him I was reading thinking working.

Don't expect your thesis advisor to give you a problem that he or she can answer. Of course, she might.
* She might give you a problem to which she already knows an answer.
* She might give you a problem that she thinks is answerable,
but that she hasn't actually answered.
* She might give you a problem that is deadly hard.
* If the problem she gives you is hard enough,
I suggest you look for a NONSTANDARD answer.
More on this later after I get done cooking the thesis advisor.

Your thesis advisor may encourage you to work in an area
that she feels completely comfortable in... in which case you can rely on her for sage advice and sound guidance.
Or she may encourage you to work on something she knows little or nothing about, in which case it will be up to you to inform and teach her.
In the latter case, you will have to learn all you can for yourself...
You will have to learn from other faculty, from courses, from books, from journals. from peers.
Both kinds of advisors can work out for you.
I don't know that one is necessarily better than the other.
But you should know which you got.

Whatever you do, you got to like doing it....
You got to like it so much that you're willing to think about it, work on it, long after everyone else has moved on.

THE PhD: DEEP IN THE MIDDLE OF IT.
There's a wonderful quote from ANATOLE FRANCE:
"A University Student"
-- and this is especially true for a PhD Student --
"should know something about everything
and everything about something."

You know the jokes about PhD's...
A PhD knows more and more about less and less
until he knows everything about nothing.

When working on a PhD, you must focus on a topic so narrow that you can understand it completely.
It will seem at first that you're working on the proverbial needle, a tiny fragment of the world, a minute crystal,
beautiful but in the scheme of things, microscopic.
Work with it. And the more you work with it, the more you penetrate it, the more you will come to see that your work, your subject, encompasses the world.
In time, you will come to see the world in your grain of sand.

To see a world in a grain of sand
Or a heaven in a wild flower,
Hold infinity in the palm of your hand
And eternity in an hour.
WILLIAM BLAKE (1757-1827)

This gorgeous quartet is followed by a large number of sometimes deep sometimes questionable aphorisms, which I see much like the occasionally grinding work of a PhD thesis.


There's all kinds of research you can do.
There's research to prove what you know to be true.
There's research -- maybe better called SEARCH -- to figure out what is true.
Some of the best such search succeeds in DISPROVING
what you initially believed to most certainly be true.

For example, Sir Fred Hoyle is said to have coined the phrase "Big Bang" at a time when he was looking to disprove it.

For a relatively minor but personal example:
When I was working on the MEDIAN problem,
my goal was to prove that any deterministic algorithm to find the MEDIAN of n integers must necessarily make roughly as many comparisons as it takes to sort n integers, i.e. n log n comparisons.
I was shocked to discover that the median of n integers can be found with just O(n) comparisons.

When working on proving some statement S true,
you should spend at least some time trying to prove it false.
Even if it's true, trying to prove it false can give insight.
And in any case, too often, our intuition is dead wrong.

There is yet another sense in which, when working on a hard problem, you may find that the answer is NOT what you expected.
You may be looking for a YES or a NO; it may be something else.

Some years ago, JOHN HOPCROFT gave one of his PhD students the problem of deciding the Equivalence of Free Boolean Forms.
The specifics don't matter.
The problem appeared as an open problem in Garey and Johnson.
The question was: Is the Equivalence problem NP-complete?
Or is it solvable in poly time?
Chandra, Wegman and I found a randomizing algorithm for this problelm. At the time this seemed to beg the question entirely. Only after writing it up did we really understand that we had given an efficient albeit randomizing algorithm to solve it, This shows, by the way, that the problem is not NP-complete if NP <> RP (Randomizing Poly-time), as seems likely.

Of course, this brings up the question whether P = NP.
The question of our time: Are NP-complete problems solvable in poly time?
Could anything I have said today be useful for so hard a problem as that?
Probably not. Nevertheless...
LEONID LEVIN believes as I do that whatever the answer to the P=NP? problem, it won't be like anything you think it should be. And he has given some wonderful examples.
For one, he has given a FACTORING ALGORITHM that is proVably optimal, up to a multiplicative constant.
He proves that if his algorithm is exponential,
then every algorithm for FACTORING is exponential.
Equivalently, if any algorithm for factoring is poly-time,
then his algorithm is poly-time.
But we haven't been able to tell the running time of his algorithm because, in a strong sense, it's running time is unanalyzable.
Maybe as STEVEN RUDICH suggests, the P=NP? problem is undecidable in the standard formalization of Mathematics.

The point is that the answer may not lie where you expect it. Here's a poem I wrote when I wondered at the fact that we must sometimes be dragged kicking and screaming in the right direction.
It's a comparison to the blind spot in our eyes,
which isn't really blind but makes things up for us.
It questions whether there might not be other things in this world that our brains, our minds, by their very nature, make up for us:

Blind Spots mb 15-MAY-96

All men have Blind Spots in their eyes,
That manufacture visions of their vale.
And shape that void where light's unregistered,
With bold-faced unrepentant tales.

What other blind spots shape our minds and thoughts?
What other tales do won'dring minds unfurl
To woo us unbeguiled we would believe
To strange and nonexistent worlds?


ABOUT WRITING:
Here is the one quote that I have found most helpful and wise:

"First have something to say,
Second say it,
Third stop when you have said it,
and
Finally give it an accurate title."
JOHN SHAW BILLINGS [1838-1913]

MY ADVICE TO YOU:
Don't expect your thesis advisor to read your thesis. Some thesis advisors can and do give good feedback, but not all.
Still, make sure that SOMEBODY reads your thesis...
I especially recommend that you ask your peers.

Here's another piece of advice that I have often had to give myself, and I here give you...
When you send a paper off to be published,
and it gets rejected...
Don't be turned off by the mindless cretinous feedback
that you get to your well-thought-out beautifully-written work!
Be a MENSCH. Use the feedback to improve your paper!
Make it better. And send it back.


Finally, it is my most earnest wish that you should know something that is honestly amazingly true of you... That you are each of you UNIQUE and SPECIAL in some glorious way.

I wrote a poem to capture this, which I now use to end my sermon. It's called "Fundamentals."

FUNDAMENTALS
mb 05-JUN-96

Bird must soar. Skunk must stink.
Cat must prowl. Man must think.

What sets man apart from beast is his engine of
thought. His mind. His
BRAIN
makes him unique
and gives him his greatest pleasure.

But fundamental as is thought for human beings,
there is stuff more basic still that underlies and
DRIVES
not only man
but all great beasts,

And that is nature's call to each of us... to be special.
To be distinguished in some way. To be
UNIQUE.
To BE something, to DO something, BETTER than everyone else.

Like the leather nosed chimpanzee,
dragging noisy cans and branches,
frightening peers into submission,

One does not have to be brilliant, a genius, to be special.
To do something better than anyone/everyone else. To be
UNMATCHED,
One has only to choose an END
any END
that MATTERS
that INSPIRES
YOU
And then DO IT.

 

June 10

像沙堆一样崩塌

                         像沙堆一样崩塌

                             ·方舟子·

    1988年夏天的一个平常早晨,在美国新罕布什尔州一个小学校举行
的一个学术会议上,来自加州大学洛杉矶分校的地球物理学家Y.Y.卡根做
了一次关于地震研究的讲座。因为与会的科学家多数并非地震专家,卡根
介绍了一些地震学的基本知识,在告诉听众地震是如何的难以捉摸、无法
预测时,也谈到已知的少数几条地震规律之一:古腾堡-里克特定律。

    在1950年代,加州理工学院的地震学家比诺·古腾堡和查尔斯·里克
特收集了发生在世界各地的几千次地震的资料加以统计,试图从中理出一
些头绪。比如说,地震震级发生的频率是不是呈正态分布( 出现一条两头
少中间多的钟形曲线)?也就是说,是否某个中间震级的地震最为多见,
是典型震级?人的身高就属于正态分布,中国成年男性的典型身高大约是
1米7,比它高或矮的人数都逐渐减少。但是古腾堡和里克特却未发现有典
型震级,震级发生的频率不是正态分布,但也不是毫无规律,而是震级越
高,则发生的频率越低。而且,它遵循一条简单的原则——幂律:一次地
震释放的能量每增加一倍,发生的频率就减少为四分之一。

    卡根此前已在其他地方多次做过类似的讲座,这回却有了意外的结果。
听众中包括在纽约布鲁克哈文国家实验室工作的丹麦理论物理学家伯·巴
克( 1948-2002)。在听了卡根对古腾堡-里克特定律的介绍后,巴克突
然想到,地震的这种情形很像他正在研究的沙堆崩塌。

    假如我们往一张桌子上一粒一粒地丢沙子,沙子将会逐渐堆积起来,
越来越高,但是不可能一直高下去,随着沙堆变高,它也变得越来越陡、
越不稳定,到一定程度,刚丢下去的沙子会引起沙堆的崩塌,让沙堆的高
度降低。崩塌之后,继续丢沙子,沙堆又再增高,然后再崩塌,如此循环
往复。

    巴克首先想要知道的是一个看来很简单的问题:沙堆崩塌的规模有小
有大,什么样的崩塌规模是最典型的?能否预计下一次的崩塌会有多大?
这需要堆许多沙堆进行统计,很费时间,所以巴克就改用计算机程序进行
模拟。巴克和他的两名同事研究了数以千计的“虚拟沙堆”,统计了数
百万次的崩塌中的沙子数。他们找到了什么典型崩塌规模了呢?什么也没
有。有的崩塌规模小到只有一粒沙子,有的则大到几百万粒沙子。什么样
的规模都有可能发生,但是并不存在一个典型的崩塌规模,无法预计。

    这是为什么呢?为了回答这个问题,巴克等人对其程序做了一些改进。
设想从上往下俯瞰虚拟沙堆,然后根据沙堆上的每粒沙子所处位置的陡度
着上不同的颜色:如果那个位置相对平稳,就着上绿色;比较陡峭,就着
上红色。刚开始堆沙堆时,都是绿色的。随着沙子的堆积,红点也逐渐增
多,进而形成网络。一粒沙子掉到红点上,就能触发周围红点的滑动。如
果红点很少,新丢下去的沙子的影响就很有限。但是一旦红点多到连成一
片,就无法估计新丢下去的沙子会导致什么结果:它可能只是打几个滚就
停下了,也可能触发周围的沙子引起一场小规模崩塌,但也可能引起一连
串连锁反应,像多米诺效应一样,导致几百万粒沙子一起崩塌。这种高度
敏感的不稳定状态称为临界状态。由于它是在沙子堆积过程中自己逐渐形
成的,巴克称之为自组织的临界状态。在这种状态下任何规模的崩塌都有
可能发生,但是即使是最大的崩塌的发生也无其他特殊的因素。它是完全
不可预测的。

    巴克也发现,沙堆崩塌规模虽然不是正态分布,但是遵循幂律:崩
塌规模越大,则发生的频率越低,参与崩塌的沙子数目每增加一倍,其发
生的频率则降低2.14倍。所以,巴克一听说震级的频率也遵循幂律,马上
就想到地震可能和沙堆崩塌一样,也是一种自组织的临界现象。随后他和
其他许多人构建计算机模型,对地震进行了模拟。

    由于地壳的运动产生的应力逐渐积累,地球处于临界状态。某个地壳断
层的某处岩石承受不了受到的应力,就会出现滑动,这个滑动可能小到无法
觉察。但是正如一粒沙子的掉下会让处于临界状态的沙堆出现无法预测的结
果一样,这个小滑动之后,任何情形都可能发生:它可能就此停下来,也
可能给附近的岩石带去足够大的应力让它们跟着滑动,引发一场地震,而
这场地震的规模是无法预料的。不管是小地震还是大地震,它们的起因都
一样,都是由于地球处于临界状态而引起的,此外大地震的发生并无特殊的
起因,既无法预测,也没有可靠的前兆,就像大规模的沙堆崩塌一样。如果
地震有意识的话,在它刚刚发生时它自己都不知道将会有多大规模,而地
震自己都不知道,我们更无法知道。

2008.6.1.

( 《中国青年报》2008.6.4)
June 01

地震来了倒底躲哪儿?道格•库普对不对?

     相信不少人都收到过美国国际救援小组(ARTI)的首席救援者道格.库普对地震自救的窍门介绍,其中的一个重点是,不要躲在床或桌子的下面,而应该躲在它们的旁边或者车的旁边,因为当建筑物倒塌时,落在物体或家俱上的屋顶的重力会撞击这些物体,使得靠近它们的地方留下一个空间。这个空间就是被他称作的"生命三角"。物体越大,越­坚固,它被挤压的余地就越小。而物体被挤压得越小,这个空间就越大,于是利用这个空间的人免于受伤的可能性就越大。

     而事实上,一名叫做Marla Petal的博士却有不同看法,他认为“生命三角”确实存在,但由于地震可能造成重物移动或者翻倒,还可能面临天花板或高处重物跌落砸中的危险,此时躲在“生命三角”却未必能提高生存概率。所以他认为需要更多实际数据来证明到底在地震初期几秒内该不该躲在“生命三角”。

     虽然“生命三角”这个问题没有准确案,但两人的其它观点确实包含了极为重要的逃生和营救技巧,这些都是从大量实际悲惨的事件中总结出来,仔细看看,一定会收获不小。

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附一:道格.库普:地震中的自救窍门

道格&#8226;库普:地震中的自救窍门
  我的名字叫道格&#8226;库普(Doug Copp)。我是世界上最有经验的救援小组---美国国际救援小组(ARTI)的首席救援者,也是灾难部的经理。
  我和曾经来自60多个不同国家成立的各种救援小组一起工作过,曾在875个倒塌的建筑物里爬进爬出。在联合国灾难减轻(UNX051-UNIENET)小组中我担任了任期两年的专家。从1985年至今,除非同时发生了多个灾祸,我几乎参与了每一次重大的救援工作。
  在1996 年,我们用我创立的而且被证明是正确的方法制作了一部电影。土耳其政府、伊斯坦布尔市、伊斯坦布尔大学、及ARTI联合制作了这部科学研究性的影片。
  我们人为地摧毁了一座学校,和一个里面有20个人体模特的房屋。十个人体模特用"蹲下和掩护"的方法,而另外十个模特使用我的"生命三角"的求生方法。
  模拟地震发生后,我们通过倒塌的碎石慢慢进入了建筑物,并拍摄和记录了结果。
  在一个在可直接观察到的而且科学的条件下,这部电影拍摄了我使用的求生技术。结果显示那些用"蹲下和和掩护"方法的人存活率会是零,而那些使用"生命三角"的人能够达到100%的存活率。上百万的人已经在土耳其和欧洲的其他地方,还有美国、加拿大和拉丁美洲的电视节目里看到过这部片子。
  我曾进入的第一个建筑物是 在1985 年墨西哥地震中的一个学校。每个孩子都在课桌底下。每个孩子都被压扁了。他们如果能在走道里挨着他们的课桌躺下,就有生还的希望。我不知道为什么孩子不在走道里。那时,我不知道孩子们被教导要躲在某物体的下面。
  简单地说,当建筑物倒塌时,落在物体或家具上的屋顶的重力会撞击这些物体,使得靠近它们的地方留下一个空间。这个空间就是被我称作的"生命三角"。物体越大,越坚固,它被挤压的余地就越小。而物体被挤压得越小,这个空间就越大,于是利用这个空间的人免于受伤的可能性就越大。
  下次,你在电视里观看倒塌的建筑物时,数一数这些形成的"三角"。你会发现到处都有这些三角。在倒塌的建筑物里, 这是最常见的形状。几乎到处都有。我培训 Trujillo (人口约为750,000的地方)的消防部门,教导人们如何求生,如何照顾他们的家人,以及如何在地震中援救他人。
  Trujillo 消防部门的救援总负责人是Trujillo大学的教授。他陪伴我同行,他说:"我叫Roberto Rosales,我是Trujillo的首席救援者。我11岁时,我被陷在一幢倒塌的建筑物里。就是发生在1972年的那场地震中,当时有70,000人 死亡。我利用我哥哥摩托车旁的"生命三角"保住了生命。我的朋友们,那些躲在床下,桌子下的人都死了。(他列出了这些人的姓名、地址……)。我可以称作是 "生命三角"的活生生的例子,而我那些朋友是"蹲下和掩护"的例子。
  道格&#8226;库普的提示:
  1、当建筑物倒下时,每个只是简单地"蹲下和掩护"的人都被压死了,每次,毫无例外。而那些躲逃到物体,如桌子,或汽车下躲避的人也总是受到了些伤害。
  2、猫,狗和小孩子在遇到危险的时候,会自然地蜷缩起身体。地震时,你也应该这么做。这是一种安全的本能。而且你在一个很小的空间里就可以做到。靠近一个物体,一个沙发,或一个大件,它仅受到了略微的挤压,但在靠着它旁边的地方留下了一个空间。
  3、在地震中,木质建筑物最牢固。木头具有弹性,并且与地震的力量一起移动。如果木质建筑物倒塌了,会留出很大的生存空间。而且,木质材料密度最小,重量最小。砖块材料则会破碎成一块块更小的砖。 砖块会造成人员受伤,但是,被砖块压伤的人远比被水泥压伤的人数则要少得多。
  4、如果晚上生发了地震,而你正在床上。你只要简单地滚下床。在床的周围会形成一个安全的空间。
  5、如果地震发生了,而你正在看电视,不能迅速地从门或窗口逃离,那就在靠近沙发,或椅子的旁边躺下,然后蜷缩起来。
  6、当大楼倒塌时,很多人在门口死亡了。怎么回事?如果你站在门框下,当门框向前或向后倒下时,你会被头顶上的屋顶砸伤。如果门框向侧面倒下,你会被压在当中, 所以,不管怎么样,你都会受到致命伤害!
  7、千万不要走楼梯,楼梯与建筑物摇晃的频率不同(他们和建筑物的主体部份分别晃动)。楼梯和大楼的结构物发生不断地碰撞,直到楼梯发生构造问题。人在楼梯上 时,会被楼梯的台阶割断,这是很恐怖的毁伤!就算楼梯没有倒塌,也要远离楼梯。楼梯就像大楼的一样会被损坏。哪怕不是因为地震而倒,还会因为承受过多的人 群而坍塌。所以,我们应该始终首先检查楼梯的安全,甚至建筑物的其他部份并没有被损坏。
  8、尽量靠近建筑物的外墙或离开建筑物。靠近墙的外侧远比内侧要好。你越靠近建筑物的中心,你的逃生路径被阻挡的可能性就越大。
  9、当发生地震时,在车内逃生的人会因路边坠落的物体砸伤,这正是 Nimitz Freeway的路上所发生的事情。San Francisco地震的无辜受害者都呆在车内。其实,他们可以简单地离开车辆, 靠近车辆坐下,或躺在车边就可以了。所有被压垮的车辆旁边都有一个3 英尺高的空间,除非车辆是被物体垂直落下。
  10、我发现,在报社或办公室里堆有很多报纸的地方,通常会好些,因为报纸不受挤压。你在纸堆旁可找到一个比较大的空间。
  美国国际救援小组(ARTI)网址
  http://www.amerrescue.org/Copp’s Badge from AKUT.Turkey.
  [http://www.amerrescue.org/scans/akut.jpg]
  
http://www.amerrescue.org/video/index_item11.htm

 

附二:Marla Petal博士的论文

(译)我们需要基于证据的地震逃生建议

科学松鼠会 作者:红猪

  汶川地震发生之后,一位名叫道格.库普的美国人的地震逃生建议风行网上。但显然不是所有的地震专家都认同他的“生命三角求生法”。在下面的文章中, 曾对1999年土耳其7.8级大地震展开研究的Marla Petal博士指出:库普所谓支撑塌陷房顶的重型家具本身就有倒塌的危险;库普所说的“人体模特实验”是在爆破的楼房中进行的,而爆破楼房与地震中楼房的倒塌方式,有着本质的区别……

http://www.cert-la.com/RejoinderToDougCopp.pdf

我们需要基于证据的地震逃生建议

Marla Petal

红猪 译

  你要是花点时间念了库普的避震建议,并觉得他的话有点道理;或者,如果你把这些建议转发给了其他人,那么请读一下本文,并将其转发给向你传播库普建议的人,以及其他人。如果你还不知道库普的理论,只是想了解几点关于地震安全的建议,那么就请直接跳到#5、#6两部分。

#1关于预知“生命三角区”的迷思

如果道格.库普关于地震安全的话引起了你的注意,那么我想探讨一下他的声明中可能激起你好奇心的几点――因为磨炼批判性思考的能力总是件好事――再者,为了能在地震中安全脱身,有些事是你能够做、也必须做的。

库普说得没错,建筑倒塌之后,确实会出现称为“生命三角”的区域。搜救人员正是首先在这些“救命空间”中寻找幸存者的。一般来说,物体越大越结实,就越不容易压缩。但是不要上当。地震的威力能够移动大型重物。我们所不知道的是a)是否可能在倒塌发生之前预知何处将成为救命空间,b)是否可能在地震的强烈晃动中到达那些区域。我们事先并不知道特定建筑的倒塌模式(但这点值得研究),也不知道震动停止以后,这些救命空间会在哪里。如果你所在的建筑倒向一边,那么你近旁的“大型重物”可能将你压到墙上碾死……

库普说“当上方的道路坠落、压扁车辆,待在车辆内部的人也随之被压死”,还说在Loma Prieta地震中,如果死者当初能走出车辆并在车旁坐下或卧倒,那他们就都能活下来,因为车辆附近会形成救命空间。这个观点也有同样的问题:在压扁的车辆旁边观察到救命空间并不说明什么。车辆本身可能在震动开始之后发生位移。有许多证据表明:轿车和卡车会在强烈的震动中翻倒。如果人人都走出车门并在车边压低身子,那么许多人会被弹起或滑行到他们身上的车辆压死或严重压伤。

库普喜欢把他的证据建立在他参与过的土耳其“实验”上。不巧的是,所有参与者都不知道,那根本不是一个实验,而是一个志愿组织的搜救演习。我在土耳其的同事证实,一栋计划拆除的建筑被用作了搜救训练。为了观察爆破过程中可能发生的事,他们确实决定曾在不同地点放置了几个人体模特。他们确实曾报告说,大型重物近旁的人体模特没有损坏。

其中的问题出在哪里呢?很简单:为了让建筑倒塌,他们在柱子中间填装炸药,从而造成了建筑的平倒塌。他们并未模拟一次地震。地震是以波动的形式出现的,会引发侧向晃动,造成好几种损毁。由于该实验没有制造任何类似的晃动,它其实并未就地震发生时的状况告诉我们任何信息。大而沉重的家具可能被移动到房间的另一头,并远离开始移动的地点。就算退一步假设真能开展实验证实该假说,事实也是:某次特定平倒塌,尽管非常致命,也仅代表了钢筋混凝土建筑最罕见的倒塌方式。房屋倒塌的主要方式至少还有四种。而在Kocaeli 地震中,平倒塌的建筑数量不到总数的3%。因而,关于其他建筑、也就是另外97%损毁的建筑,以及许多未遭损毁建筑中的人员遭遇,这些结果所能告诉我们的微乎其微。要想提出问题以告知每个人在晃动开始时该做些什么,可要比库普眼前的证据复杂得多。

#2“如果我能救出一条人命”中的谬误

  搜救人员迫切想要挽救生命。但事实如下:全世界搜救人员的经验是挖出98具死尸和2名活人。有人喜欢将自己救出的一条人命编成轶事,用以告诫其他上百万名潜在的受害者。这些故事自有其市场,但将个案推广到上百万人身上是不科学的。在一台冰箱边发现一个或十个活人都不能说明什么,除非你在震后观察100或1000台冰箱,看看地震时在它们近旁的人会有什么样的遭遇。当你建议人们在地震期间该如何行动时,你的对象差不多是每一个感到震动的人。

我们很希望能在当初指导Kocaeli地震中丧生的2万人,那样至少能挽救几条生命。但是别忘了,为了救出他们中的任何人,我们当初就必须指导所有感到震动、并能够采取行动的150万人。假设我们的指导能让一千人在平倒塌的建筑中幸免(可能性很小),却同时让人员总数中同样感到震动的0.00007%(疑有误)处于死亡或重伤的危险之中,那我们可就是功不抵过了。换句话说,库普认为能在某栋特定倒塌的建筑中使人生还的行为,却可能使他们在其他倒塌或未倒塌的建筑中处于危险的境地。

在土耳其的出版物中,有的图片显示人们在地震中蹲在冰箱和厨房长桌边,而非附近的餐桌下方。当我向加州人展示这些图片时,他们惊恐得长大了嘴。显然,冰箱可能滑动翻倒、其中的内容可能倾泄而出、炉子上正加热食物、长桌上还放着厨具、头顶的柜子里也塞满了东西,这些全都可能危及图中的人们。他们显然应该待在餐桌下方,或躲到厨房外面。然而,“我在这里发现了一个活人”之类的轶事就会让人干出这样的蠢事。下回土耳其再地震,有人就会因此丧命。

说到这里,我和大多数科学界的同事老不情愿地承认:如果人们是居住在自建的土砖结构房屋中,如果屋顶沉重,房屋没有抗震设计,如果身处底楼、能够迅速跑到户外的安全空地,那么晃动一开始,他们就该往外跑。否则,他们就还是应该蹲下、掩避、等待。 当屋顶采用轻质材料时,土砖坍塌中的生存几率就更大了。但在现实中,为防止在地震中丧生的工作在震前很早就开始进行了。我们需要进行许多精心设计的研究,才能了解是否真的存在某种行为,它在使人从建筑倒塌中幸免之外,还能确保受害者的数量不会多于受益者!至于其他援助行动:“第一点,不要害人。”

#3库普的惊人错误

库普所宣称的许多经验都没有经过研究,比如“所有在建筑倒塌时’蹲下、掩蔽’的人,都被压死了――每回如此,毫无例外”;“每一个在建筑倒塌时身处门口的人都丧命了。”这些话最多算是有待检验的偏激陈述。最好能让搜救人员和社会科学研究者一同来审视这些假说。

  库普还说:“尽量靠近建筑物的外墙或离开建筑物……你越靠近建筑物的中心,你的逃生路径被阻挡的可能性就越大。”并没有证据支持这一点。有个相反的假说认为:瓦片会向外坠落,你也会,在装了填充瓦墙面的混凝土建筑中尤其如此。这同样是一个不错的研究课题,但它目前只是个未经检验的假说而已。

请明白一点:即便是最好的科学方法也未必带来理想的、或甚至是有益的结果。但我们还是应该用科学的方法来审视我们的直觉。有很多重要的问题我们还未着手回答,但像那样绝对的说法根本就是垃圾而已,完全无法取代科学方法。

#4库普说对了一半的地方

  库普建议以“胎儿姿势”蜷缩身体,以此“在狭小空间中生存”。减少体积的想法倒是没错。压低身体能够防止跌倒受伤,蜷缩作为坠落物打击目标的身体还意味着可能被砸到的部位更少。但我们在土耳其的一个地震模拟震动台上做过尝试,“蜷缩成球状”的胎儿姿势很容易让我们滚来滚去。我们觉得这样并不算真正安全。比较让人感到安全的姿势是在膝盖和小腿着地的前提下尽量压低身体,这样我们就能对自己的动作稍微有点控制,同时又能爬行到更加安全的位置上去了。

库普建议“在一个沙发边,或一个受到挤压时略微变形、却在一旁留下空间的大件边伏低。” 对Kocaeli地震的研究表明,这条建议或许是正确的。许多Kocaeli地震的幸存者都会同意,在那场地震中,这样的做法不仅可行,而且安全。这是个不错的假说,应该进一步予以审视。

  库普说:“木质建筑是地震中最为安全的建筑型式。”他说得没错……然而一旦发生震后火灾,它们就成了最糟糕的建筑型式。因此,尽管居住在木头房屋中的人们能稍微放宽心,他们还是得准备在火焰尚小时用灭火器和毛毯将其扑灭。

  库普说:“如果在晚上发生地震,而你正在床上,那么翻身滚下床就行了。”事实上,无论是在加州还是在土尔其的地震中,那些待在床上的人才是最安全的。如果建筑倾斜、床位移动……床脚下可能不是最好的躲藏地点吧。

库普说他“爬进放了许多纸张的报社或办公室,发现纸张不会压紧。”他在几摞纸张周围发现了大片空间。这对于杂货店而言是个好消息,但只有当货架固定在地板或天花板上时才是如此。坦率地说,如果你住在一栋你觉得可能倒塌的建筑里,那么凭良心讲,唯一正确的建议就是让你另找一个地方居住,而不是靠在每间屋子里放一叠纸张或一架书籍来挽救你的性命。至少三份土尔其出版物上刊登了人们蹲在起居室中间的一大架纸制品旁边的照片,你或许会觉得这看起来挺可悲。面对现实吧:我们的任务是适应地震。这类建议使得对公众的教育和对地震的准备难上加难。

  库普说的“千万不要走楼梯”是个合理的建议。

#5那么,你该怎么做呢?

  想一下你的居住和工作环境中可能出现的情况。哪几个地点看上去比较安全?

  固定好高而重的家具以及视听设备,将重物搬到低处,以此让你的环境变得更安全。

鞋子和手电放在床边。

  晃动时,伏倒在地。掩护好头部和颈部。抓牢掩护物或某个稳定物体。

  为什么我们要不断地说这几点?我们有什么证据吗?几个国家对伤亡原因的研究揭示了几种重要模式: a) 死亡几乎总是同头部、颈部、和胸部受伤联系在一起。 b)许多伤害是由跌倒造成的。如果你压低身体或支撑住身体,就能预防跌倒。c) 很大一部分夜间伤都是腿脚受伤……即使在轻度损毁的地方也是如此……相框掉在地板上,受灾者没有穿鞋,周围没有光照,父母和子女想在黑暗中找到对方…… d) 至少一半伤害是非结构性物体造成的。许多这样的伤害性质严重,而对有限医疗资源的迫切需求使之雪上加霜。在有限医疗资源被用来挽救生命时,再造成不必要的伤害就显得丢人了。e) 你暴露在坠落物体下方的目标面积越小,你被什么东西砸中的机率就越小。

#6既然你正在思考这些问题……

  城市减震工作要求我们所有人都参与三项主要活动:评估和规划、降低身体威胁,及培养应对能力。

评估和规划

(马上思考,立即行动)

  和家人坐在一起,共同讨论可能出现的情况。

  决定社区内外的集合地点。

  找到一个“震区外联络人”,在受灾后与之迅速联络,并获得安慰。

  指定他人在紧急状况下将你的孩子从学校接走,同他们制定一个会合方案。

保护你的身体

(采取措施,降低身体威胁)

如不能确定你的家、单位或学校的建筑结构是否牢固,那就委托一位合格的建筑师进行评估。

  房屋能够翻修就进行翻修,不能翻修就搬走或者推倒。

  固定沉重的大件家具。

  保证热水器的安全。

  在每层楼放置一个灭火器,并定期进行检修。

培养应对能力

(准备好参与解决问题)

准备一周的水、食物和出访处方药。

  准备一个急救箱。

  检查你车上和门边的“冲锋包”。

  灾难准备不可能在一夜间完成。它包括一系列在家庭、单位、学校、社区和区域中完成的小步骤。它的完成依靠的是个人、家庭、组织、机构、和政府的行动。

  距离1906年旧金山地震100周年的日子已经不远。现在正是给自己承诺,并踏出一小步的时候。

May 27

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